202 Mountain Ash Ln · Williamsville, MO 63901

$179,000

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Other public records · 173 Days on market

Built 2003 2.70 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for investment property in the county? This duplex is recently rented to new tenants totaling $1780 monthly gross rents. This one has newer HVAC units and many updates including fresh paint and floor coverings. Duplex backs up to private wooded area and larger side yard goes with property for Shop Potential, another Duplex, or Marketing Billboard close to Highway 67 North. Sellers do pay for water agreement with neighboring property and is on a septic system. Electric will be tenants responsibility, metered separately and 200 amp breakers. This one now pays for it self plus some monthly cash to improve property or start saving for the next investment.

Key facts

• Floor coverings
• Fresh paint
• Newer hvac units

Tags

• DUPLEX
• PRIVATE WOODED AREA
• LARGER SIDE YARD
• NEWER HVAC UNITS
• FRESH PAINT
• FLOOR COVERINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($80/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#588 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Poplar Bluff R-I (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #127 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,322 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,641
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,642
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63901

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,403 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,063/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,000 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-03-11
   price $179,000 673-char remark

   Show marketing remark (673 chars)

   Looking for investment property in the county? This duplex is recently rented to new tenants totaling $1780 monthly gross rents. This one has newer HVAC units and many updates including fresh paint and floor coverings. Duplex backs up to private wooded area and larger side yard goes with property for Shop Potential, another Duplex, or Marketing Billboard close to Highway 67 North. Sellers do pay for water agreement with neighboring property and is on a septic system. Electric will be tenants responsibility, metered separately and 200 amp breakers. This one now pays for it self plus some monthly cash to improve property or start saving for the next investment.

3. 2025-12-09
   listed $194,500 Active 673-char remark

   Show marketing remark (673 chars)

   Looking for investment property in the county? This duplex is recently rented to new tenants totaling $1780 monthly gross rents. This one has newer HVAC units and many updates including fresh paint and floor coverings. Duplex backs up to private wooded area and larger side yard goes with property for Shop Potential, another Duplex, or Marketing Billboard close to Highway 67 North. Sellers do pay for water agreement with neighboring property and is on a septic system. Electric will be tenants responsibility, metered separately and 200 amp breakers. This one now pays for it self plus some monthly cash to improve property or start saving for the next investment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,063 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,736 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$674/yr (+$56/mo · 63.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,063
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,347
• − Management: −$1,347
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$3,047
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$731
• After-tax cash flow: $812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poplar Bluff R-I
• NCES district ID: 2925450
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,761
• Composite: 35.17/100
• National rank: #5001
• State rank: #127 of 324 in MO

Livability — Williamsville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #20851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 34,920

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,648 people
• By 2030: 42,329 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 41,498 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 40,308 · -5.5%
• By 2075: 36,168 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 28,893 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.7% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.3 2016: R+61.6 2012: R+46.7 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.64%
• Current HPI: 175.3008
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $179,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listed $194,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,063 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.