1921 W Vineyard Plains Dr

San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$369,799D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,169 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,054/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,939
• Tax + insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$76
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-677/mo
• Annual: $-8,119/yr
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.84%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $103,544

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-677 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (44.5% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (44.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: San Tan Heights Elementary (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #803 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 668 students, 55% FRL); San Tan Foothills High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 824 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 475 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $370k implies a 340% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.