86 Lincoln Ave

Holbrook, NY 11741

$259,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 191 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,831/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$432
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $446/mo
• Annual: $5,358/yr
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.39%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#658 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.5% in Holbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.