86 Lincoln Ave · Holbrook, NY 11741

$259,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 191 Days on market

Built 1970 Good condition $360/sqft · 58% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this COMPLETELY RENOVATED Move-In Ready 2 bedroom home in the desirable Holbrook Village Community. New Roof, Window, Siding, Electrical, Plumbing, New Kitchen, New Bathroom, New Flooring etc.... Close to Public Transportation, Stores, Restaurants, MacArthur airport and much more. Monthly fee of $975 includes Taxes, Land Rent, Water, Cesspool Service, Snow & Garbage removal.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New bathroom
• Completely renovated

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• NEW ROOF
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOM
• HOLBROOK VILLAGE COMMUNITY
• CLOSE TO PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.5% in Holbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#658 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $227,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.39%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,325
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: 57.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Lincoln Ave	0.06mi	2/1.0	728 (+1%)	8mo	$142,500	$196	89
46 Valley Forge Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	11mo	$159,000	$221	56
44 Betsy Ross Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0	700 (-3%)	12mo	$175,000	$250	52
27 Betsy Ross Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	760 (+6%)	8mo	$213,750	$281	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-712
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $93,475
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11741

• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,831 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Moonlight Walk Unit 90 Holbrook, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,430	$3.47	43d	1	0.83mi
865 Broadway Ave Holbrook, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$3,590	$4.02	1d	35	0.88mi
30 Westgate Dr Unit HD13 Bohemia, NY	1.0	1.0	630	$2,645	$4.20	22d	1	1.25mi
50 Chelsea Ct Unit HS18 Bohemia, NY	1.0	1.0	676	$2,630	$3.89	43d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $259,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,000 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 173 DOM
15. 2025-12-09
    listed $269,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Come see this COMPLETELY RENOVATED Move-In Ready 2 bedroom home in the desirable Holbrook Village Community. New Roof, Window, Siding, Electrical, Plumbing, New Kitchen, New Bathroom, New Flooring etc.... Close to Public Transportation, Stores, Restaurants, MacArthur airport and much more. Monthly fee of $975 includes Taxes, Land Rent, Water, Cesspool Service, Snow & Garbage removal.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,718
• − Management: −$2,718
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable income: $1,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$315
• After-tax cash flow: $5,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This completely renovated 2-bedroom home in Holbrook Village is move-in ready with new kitchen, bathroom, siding, windows, and flooring. It offers a good condition score and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding and trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping the yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a small outdoor lighting system — Enhances safety and curb appeal, increasing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding and trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor lighting system — Enhances safety and curb appeal, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #12283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holbrook, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 26,667
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,667
• Household income: $144,346
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.71%
• Current HPI: 328.9231
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.30%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Listed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid