709-950 Willow St

Johnstonville, CA 96130

$199,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,127 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $971/yr
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.74%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($971/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#234 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Shaffer Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #925 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shaffer Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #856 of 1,571 statewide, top 57%, 207 students, 56% FRL); Lassen High (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #750 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 820 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $199k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.