709-950 Willow St · Johnstonville, CA 96130

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,127 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1981 8,333 sqft lot Est $224k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Susanville, this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath home offers 1,127 sq ft of living space. The kitchen includes an electric oven range, refrigerator, and exhaust fan. There is a dining area adjacent to the kitchen. The living room features a wood-burning fireplace, providing a cozy atmosphere. Heating is provided by electric room heaters and a wood stove. Cooling includes a ceiling fan and built-in evaporative cooler. Flooring throughout combines carpet, laminate, and vinyl/linoleum. All facilities are conveniently located inside the home. The primary bedroom includes a private 1/2 bath and walk-in closet. The property also includes a one-car garage and a separate shed. Corner lot fully fenced with back deck, large shade tree and lots of privacy. Tons of built-in storage. Access to the garage right off the entry.

Key facts

• Electric oven range
• Ceiling fan
• Walk in closet

Tags

• ELECTRIC OVEN RANGE
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• CEILING FAN
• BUILT IN EVAPORATIVE COOLER
• PRIVATE 1/2 BATH
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Private/mutual water; Individual electric meters
• Home design: Detached single-story home; Concrete perimeter foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Concrete perimeter foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Deck; Storage shed/structure; Grade-level (level) lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust fan; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on ground floor; 3 bedrooms total
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl/linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wood stove heating; Ceiling fan; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Dining area; Shower over tub; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Inside laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($971/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#234 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Shaffer Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #925 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shaffer Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #856 of 1,571 statewide, top 57%, 207 students, 56% FRL); Lassen High (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #750 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 820 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $199k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.74%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,273
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
709-985 Lake Ave	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,140 (+1%)	1mo	$229,000	$201	91
710-060 Muskrat Dr	0.08mi	3/0.5	1,120 (-1%)	8mo	$223,000	$199	86
710-260 Lake Ave	0.20mi	3/0.5	1,127 (0%)	7mo	$229,000	$203	83
470-730 Levee Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-4%)	5mo	$235,000	$216	83
710-225 Willow St	0.17mi	3/0.5	1,124 (-0%)	10mo	$180,000	$160	81
710-065 Lake Ave	0.10mi	3/0.5	1,140 (+1%)	14mo	$220,000	$193	80
710120 Willow St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,127 (0%)	17mo	$235,000	$209	77
709-875 Tamarack St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+4%)	4mo	$213,000	$181	76
710-455 Lake Ave	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,140 (+1%)	10mo	$165,000	$145	73
471-000 Cottonwood Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+2%)	21mo	$230,000	$200	64
710-445 Lake Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-6%)	17mo	$200,000	$188	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,139
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,177
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96130

• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,627/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,598

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $137	+0% $81	+5% $25	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $14	+0% $81	+5% $148	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $131	base $81	+0.5pp $29	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
709-895 Alder St Susanville, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,700	$1.48	15d	1	0.19mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-05-26
    listed $199,000 Active 822-char remark

    Show marketing remark (822 chars)

    Located in Susanville, this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath home offers 1,127 sq ft of living space. The kitchen includes an electric oven range, refrigerator, and exhaust fan. There is a dining area adjacent to the kitchen. The living room features a wood-burning fireplace, providing a cozy atmosphere. Heating is provided by electric room heaters and a wood stove. Cooling includes a ceiling fan and built-in evaporative cooler. Flooring throughout combines carpet, laminate, and vinyl/linoleum. All facilities are conveniently located inside the home. The primary bedroom includes a private 1/2 bath and walk-in closet. The property also includes a one-car garage and a separate shed. Corner lot fully fenced with back deck, large shade tree and lots of privacy. Tons of built-in storage. Access to the garage right off the entry.

20. 2026-05-26
    listed $199,000 Active 822-char remark

    Show marketing remark (822 chars)

    Located in Susanville, this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath home offers 1,127 sq ft of living space. The kitchen includes an electric oven range, refrigerator, and exhaust fan. There is a dining area adjacent to the kitchen. The living room features a wood-burning fireplace, providing a cozy atmosphere. Heating is provided by electric room heaters and a wood stove. Cooling includes a ceiling fan and built-in evaporative cooler. Flooring throughout combines carpet, laminate, and vinyl/linoleum. All facilities are conveniently located inside the home. The primary bedroom includes a private 1/2 bath and walk-in closet. The property also includes a one-car garage and a separate shed. Corner lot fully fenced with back deck, large shade tree and lots of privacy. Tons of built-in storage. Access to the garage right off the entry.

21. 2004-05-13
    soldstatus $107,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,627
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$581
• After-tax cash flow: $1,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shaffer Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0636420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,545
• Composite: 31.53/100
• National rank: #11160
• State rank: #925 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Johnstonville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #7626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,892

Population outlook (Lassen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,112 people
• By 2030: 26,732 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 25,536 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,262 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 18,620 · -31.3%
• By 2100: 14,679 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Black 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lassen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.0) · D 21.8% · R 75.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.2pp · 2024: -54.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.0 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+39.8 2008: R+34.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.12%
• Current HPI: 136.1585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+86.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $199,000 MLSListings
• 2026-05-26 Listed $199,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,627 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.