447 Buckboard Rd

West Fork, AR 72774

$342,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,148/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,793
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$661
• Net cashflow: $439/mo
• Annual: $5,274/yr
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.51%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $95,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $342k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (7.9% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $315k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#126 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenland School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #168 of 238 in AR (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $212k; list at $342k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.5% in West Fork — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.