447 Buckboard Rd · West Fork, AR 72774

$342,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2006 8,001 sqft lot Est $302k · 13% over $8/mo HOA ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Obviously a previous model. Many upgrades - too many to list.

Key facts

• All brick home
• 8,001 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• ALL BRICK HOME
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR EMPLOYERS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee $100 (see agent for details); Community near schools

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale (less than 25 years old)
• Construction: Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Covered patio; Partial wood privacy fencing; Landscaped yard; Located in a subdivision; Public road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $342k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.5% in West Fork — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#126 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenland School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #168 of 238 in AR (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $212k; list at $342k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,849 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.51%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,950
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1329 Homestead Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (+2%)	3mo	$270,000	$144	86
521 E Oxen Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+4%)	11mo	$282,500	$148	78
448 E Buckboard Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,857 (+2%)	23mo	$292,500	$158	77
443 E Buckboard Rd	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-12%)	3mo	$275,000	$172	76
511 Buckboard Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,687 (-8%)	9mo	$278,000	$165	76
489 Harness Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,686 (-8%)	11mo	$280,000	$166	74
1226 N Centennial Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,894 (+4%)	1mo	$300,000	$158	70
488 Buckboard Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (-6%)	15mo	$280,000	$163	70
478 Harness Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-10%)	12mo	$275,000	$167	69
525 Buckboard Rd	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (-6%)	16mo	$282,000	$164	67
518 Harness Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,649 (-10%)	19mo	$275,000	$167	62
488 Wagon Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,673 (-9%)	22mo	$294,000	$176	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-27,574
• Equity at exit: $50,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $11,438
• Equity at exit: $29,570

Cash invested: $95,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72774

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,793
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,246/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$661
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,592

Max offer price $342,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,500
• Closing costs: $10,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $342,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $342,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $342,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $342,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $342,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $342,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $342,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $342,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $342,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $342,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $342,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $342,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $342,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $362,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $362,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $362,000 Active
17. 2021-05-05
    soldstatus $211,500
18. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus $211,500 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Obviously a previous model. Many upgrades - too many to list.

19. 2021-03-02
    listed $219,900 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Obviously a previous model. Many upgrades - too many to list.

20. 2017-03-10
    soldstatus $137,000 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Charming home with lots of space! This three bedroom/2 bathroom home features an excellent layout. Formal dining room off the entry provides a great space to entertain guests. A large living room with fireplace and lots of natural light. From the living room you enter the eat-in kitchen. With stainless appliances , granite counters, and counter bar seating. The spacious master bedroom with attached master bathroom offers a great retreat. Outside is a covered patio and fenced backyard. Two additional bedrooms add plenty of space.

21. 2017-02-03
    listed $140,000 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Charming home with lots of space! This three bedroom/2 bathroom home features an excellent layout. Formal dining room off the entry provides a great space to entertain guests. A large living room with fireplace and lots of natural light. From the living room you enter the eat-in kitchen. With stainless appliances , granite counters, and counter bar seating. The spacious master bedroom with attached master bathroom offers a great retreat. Outside is a covered patio and fenced backyard. Two additional bedrooms add plenty of space.

22. 2008-09-22
    soldstatus $625,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,246 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,189 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$943/yr (+$79/mo · 75.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,157
• − Property taxes: −$1,246
• − Insurance: −$1,710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,023
• − Management: −$3,023
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$9,949
• Taxable loss: −$422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$101
• After-tax cash flow: $5,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenland School District
• NCES district ID: 0506930
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $43,761
• Composite: 23.11/100
• National rank: #7960
• State rank: #168 of 238 in AR

Livability — West Fork

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #11748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,298

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,748 people
• By 2030: 296,414 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 346,874 · +27.6%
• By 2050: 398,552 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 523,309 · +92.6%
• By 2100: 615,280 · +126.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.1% · R 51.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+10.4 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.93%
• Current HPI: 267.4622
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-42.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $362,000 NWARMLS
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $211,500 Public Records
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $211,500 NWARMLS
• 2021-03-02 Listed $219,900 NWARMLS
• 2017-03-10 Sold (MLS) $137,000 NWARMLS
• 2017-02-03 Listed $140,000 NWARMLS
• 2008-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $625,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,246 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.