8649 E Royal Palm Rd #213

Scottsdale, AZ 85258

$215,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 758 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 462 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,924/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$316
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-282/mo
• Annual: $-3,381/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.62%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (10.5% below list).
• It's been on market 462 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cheyenne Traditional School (math 78% / reading 75%, grade A, #24 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 880 students, 4% FRL); Cocopah Middle School (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B+, #3 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 886 students, 9% FRL); Chaparral High School (math 40% / reading 35%, grade F, #82 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 2,038 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 21% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 16438% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 462 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.