309 Depot Rd

Huntington Station, NY 11746

$429,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,785/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$1,201
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$795
• Net cashflow: $-460/mo
• Annual: $-5,521/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.60%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $429k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-460 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (11.8% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $348k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#126 in NY, #2,028 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• South Huntington Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #290 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Walt Whitman High School (math 96% / reading 94%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,991 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 36% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 95% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+44 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the South Huntington Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $429k implies a 1044% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.1% in Huntington Station — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.