309 Depot Rd · Huntington Station, NY 11746

$429,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 1950 5,227 sqft lot $358/sqft · 35% below area Est $658k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House being offered AS IS. Lot value only. Due to condition of property no interior access will be allowed.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-460 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $348k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.1% in Huntington Station — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#126 in NY, #2,028 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• South Huntington Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #290 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Walt Whitman High School (math 96% / reading 94%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,991 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 36% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 95% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+44 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the South Huntington Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $429k implies a 1044% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,731 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.60%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $657,500
• List price: $429,000
• Delta: -34.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Hazard Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,169 (-3%)	6mo	$555,000	$475	65
10 Stratton Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,363 (+14%)	3mo	$555,000	$407	62
17 Armell St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+8%)	2mo	$665,000	$512	62
9 Melville Rd N	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+12%)	4mo	$610,000	$452	59
273 Lenox Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,303 (+9%)	9mo	$620,000	$476	51
9 Armell St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+8%)	11mo	$580,000	$446	50
122 E 12th St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-8%)	6mo	$519,000	$472	49
22 W Park Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,032 (-14%)	11mo	$695,000	$673	48
75 Lodge Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (-12%)	2mo	$555,000	$524	44
128 E 10th St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,150 (-4%)	10mo	$595,000	$517	44
113 east 12th St	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,350 (+12%)	11mo	$630,000	$467	44
5 Charles Pl	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,350 (+12%)	6mo	$529,000	$392	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-92,507
• Equity at exit: $63,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-91,622
• Equity at exit: $37,092

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11746

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,785 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$1,022 /mo · $12,262/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$795
• Net cashflow: $-460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,367

Max offer price $347,731

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-217	-5% $-339	+0% $-460	+5% $-581	+10% $-703
Rent	-10% $-759	-5% $-610	+0% $-460	+5% $-311	+10% $-161
Rate	-1.0pp $-244	-0.5pp $-351	base $-460	+0.5pp $-571	+1.0pp $-684

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
58 Caldwell St Huntington Station, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$3,000	$3.53	45d	1	0.54mi
156 E Pulaski Rd Huntington Station, NY	2.0–3.0	1.0	936	$2,955	$3.16	0d	12	0.81mi
1700 E 5th St Huntington Station, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1277	$4,767	$3.73	0d	1	1.13mi
16 Ark Pl Huntington Station, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$3,875	$3.88	12d	1	1.33mi
1090 New York Ave Unit Penthouse Huntington Station, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,975	$3.98	45d	1	1.35mi
1090 New York Ave Unit Penthouse Huntington Station, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,975	$3.98	0d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   House being offered AS IS. Lot value only. Due to condition of property no interior access will be allowed.

2. 2026-03-18
   listed $429,000 Active 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   House being offered AS IS. Lot value only. Due to condition of property no interior access will be allowed.

3. 1980-10-06
   soldstatus $37,500
4. 1977-09-08
   soldstatus $39,122

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,262 · $1,022/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,262 · $1,022/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$12,262
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,634
• − Management: −$3,634
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$12,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,063
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Huntington Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627300
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $92,630
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2189
• State rank: #290 of 590 in NY

Livability — Huntington Station

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #2028

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Huntington Station, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,747
• Household income: $164,589
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 627.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 8% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -715.60%
• Current HPI: 317.5657
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+996.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $429,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1980-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 1977-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $39,122 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,262 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.