6577 Samuel Dr

Horace, ND 58047

$269,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 901 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,394/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$651
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-176/mo
• Annual: $-2,107/yr
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (11.3% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $239k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in ND, #4,718 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• West Fargo 6 (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 53 in ND (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,218 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cass County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Horace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.