6577 Samuel Dr · Horace, ND 58047

$269,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 901 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2025 5,375 sqft lot ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,375 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 5,375 sq ft (43 x 125); Total living area listed as 1,792

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with floor drain
• Utilities: City sewer connection; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential split-entry (bi-level); New construction; Poured concrete foundation; Built by J & L Construction; Home faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (located on upper and lower levels)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement; Hollywood-style bathroom; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Horace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in ND, #4,718 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• West Fargo 6 (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 53 in ND (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,218 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (410 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $238,878 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-54,760
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-61,437
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58047

• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$539 /mo · $6,464/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $238,878

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-23	-5% $-99	+0% $-176	+5% $-252	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-365	-5% $-270	+0% $-176	+5% $-81	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-107	base $-176	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $269,900 Active
3. 2026-05-14
   historical
4. 2025-05-13
   listed $269,900 Active
5. 2024-08-01
   soldstatus $394,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,464 · $539/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,464 · $539/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$6,464
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,298
• − Management: −$2,298
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$6,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,598
• After-tax cash flow: $-510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Fargo 6
• NCES district ID: 3819410
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,914
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4628
• State rank: #26 of 53 in ND

Livability — Horace

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #4718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horace, ND
• County: Cass County · 177,143 people
• City population: 5,636
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• Population (ZIP): 5,636
• Household income: $142,361
• Rent vs Own: 4.7% rent · 95.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,771 people
• By 2030: 251,835 · +12.5%
• By 2040: 311,816 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 378,694 · +69.2%
• By 2075: 571,386 · +155.3%
• By 2100: 769,727 · +244.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Scotch-Irish 7% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 44.9% · R 53.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+2.7 2016: R+10.7 2012: R+3.0 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.83%
• Current HPI: 178.7028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-31.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-13 Listed $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $394,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+299.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,464 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.