139 Cloverdale Cir

Theodosia, MO 65761

$79,500C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $828/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $104/mo
• Annual: $1,252/yr
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $22,260

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($828 rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($550 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#649 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lutie R-VI (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #510 of 535 in MO (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP.
• Ozark County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.1% in Theodosia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.