139 Cloverdale Cir · Theodosia, MO 65761

$79,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2000 ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake View Retreat Near Bull Shoals Lake - Perfect Weekend Getaway!Enjoy stunning lake views and an unbeatable location in the charming town of Theodosia, just minutes from Bull Shoals Lake. This inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect escape for a weekend retreat, vacation property, or cozy full-time residence. Inside, you'll find a comfortable layout with a well-appointed kitchen positioned to take in beautiful views of the lake--making everyday living feel like a getaway. Step outside to a spacious covered deck, along with an extended open deck, ideal for relaxing summer evenings, entertaining guests, or simply soaking in the peaceful surroundings. Whether you're looking to unwind, host friends and family, or invest in a lakeside escape, this property is full of potential and charm. And best part is it's fully furnished and move in ready. Just in time for summer lake time fun!!!

Key facts

• Lake views
• Extended open deck
• Built 2000

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• SPACIOUS COVERED DECK
• EXTENDED OPEN DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($828 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.1% in Theodosia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#649 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lutie R-VI (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #510 of 535 in MO (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($550 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Ozark County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,730 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $32,057
• Equity at exit: $52,579

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.98×
• Total profit: $88,546
• Equity at exit: $97,680

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65761

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $132	+0% $104	+5% $77	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $72	+0% $104	+5% $137	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $125	base $104	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $79,500 Pending 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,500 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,500 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,500 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,500 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $79,500 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,500 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,500 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,500 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-04-25
    price $79,500 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    Lake View Retreat Near Bull Shoals Lake - Perfect Weekend Getaway!Enjoy stunning lake views and an unbeatable location in the charming town of Theodosia, just minutes from Bull Shoals Lake. This inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect escape for a weekend retreat, vacation property, or cozy full-time residence. Inside, you'll find a comfortable layout with a well-appointed kitchen positioned to take in beautiful views of the lake--making everyday living feel like a getaway. Step outside to a spacious covered deck, along with an extended open deck, ideal for relaxing summer evenings, entertaining guests, or simply soaking in the peaceful surroundings. Whether you're looking to unwind, host friends and family, or invest in a lakeside escape, this property is full of potential and charm. And best part is it's fully furnished and move in ready. Just in time for summer lake time fun!!!

11. 2026-03-18
    listed $84,900 Active 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    Lake View Retreat Near Bull Shoals Lake - Perfect Weekend Getaway!Enjoy stunning lake views and an unbeatable location in the charming town of Theodosia, just minutes from Bull Shoals Lake. This inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect escape for a weekend retreat, vacation property, or cozy full-time residence. Inside, you'll find a comfortable layout with a well-appointed kitchen positioned to take in beautiful views of the lake--making everyday living feel like a getaway. Step outside to a spacious covered deck, along with an extended open deck, ideal for relaxing summer evenings, entertaining guests, or simply soaking in the peaceful surroundings. Whether you're looking to unwind, host friends and family, or invest in a lakeside escape, this property is full of potential and charm. And best part is it's fully furnished and move in ready. Just in time for summer lake time fun!!!

12. 2023-04-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$794
• − Management: −$794
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable loss: −$14
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3
• After-tax cash flow: $1,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lutie R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2923400
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $35,359
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #13904
• State rank: #510 of 535 in MO

Livability — Theodosia

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #21869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Theodosia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,383

Population outlook (Ozark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,561 people
• By 2030: 8,040 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 7,069 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,310 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 5,095 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 4,112 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ozark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.6% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.2pp toward R · 2008: -26.8pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.1 2016: R+64.8 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+26.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.51%
• Current HPI: 223.1575
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $79,500 SOMO
• 2026-03-18 Listed $84,900 SOMO
• 2023-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $115 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.