5 bd · 4.5 ba ·
2,800 sqft ·
Built 2027
· Land
· Active
· 30 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$14,014/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$12,966
Tax + insurance
−$2,115
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,943
Net cashflow
$-4,010/mo
Annual
$-48,116/yr
Cap rate
4.55%
Cash-on-cash
-6.21%
DSCR
0.72
1% rule
0.57%
Cash to close
$692,300
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath land listed at $2.47M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-48k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.76M (28.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.40M (43.3% below list).
It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.44M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.40M (43.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $74k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#149 in NJ, #3,893 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Margate City School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #113 of 472 in NJ (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $1.16M; list at $2.47M implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 7.4% in Margate City — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
At $14,014/mo this rent would consume 138% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 23% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VJD05M616GWSH0
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29