36916 Cohiba St

Citrus City, TX 78574

$159,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$301
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $46/mo
• Annual: $553/yr
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($553/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (6.0% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,366 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dr Maria Palmira Mendiola El (math 14% / reading 30%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 594 students, 98% FRL); Dr Javier Saenz Middle (math 10% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 655 students, 99% FRL); La Joya H S (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,775 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 54% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 479 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.