Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40258
$1,140,900B-
24 bd · 12.0 ba ·
21,312 sqft ·
Built 1974
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 39 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$15,039/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$5,983
Tax + insurance
−$1,235
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,158
Net cashflow
$4,663/mo
Annual
$55,951/yr
Cap rate
11.20%
Cash-on-cash
17.51%
DSCR
1.78
1% rule
1.32%
Cash to close
$319,452
Investor read
This is a 8 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.14M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($56k/yr) — positive. Per door: $583/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.14M).
It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.11M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.11M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Sanders Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #620 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 430 students, 78% FRL); Conway Middle (math 4% / reading 20%, grade F, #215 of 217 statewide, top 99%, 730 students, 72% FRL); Western High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #248 of 254 statewide, top 98%, 869 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 11% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 127 active listings in the ZIP; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $83k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $319k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.1% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $15,039/mo this rent would consume 265% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 839% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VJY1QA9Y5TWX19
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29