10618 Emory Park

Sienna, TX 77459

$450,000C+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,231 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,309/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$1,399
• HOA: −$132
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,115
• Net cashflow: $302/mo
• Annual: $3,630/yr
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.88%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 35% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,309/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.