10618 Emory Park · Sienna, TX 77459

$450,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,231 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2021 7,535 sqft lot Est $595k · 24% under $132/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

10618 Emory Park is more than a house—it’s a blank canvas brimming with potential, comfort, and soulful warmth. Whether you’re stepping into the soft-carpeted bedrooms, basking in the glow of natural light streaming through the open living space, or dreaming under the wide Texas sky in your expansive backyard with the quiet privacy of no back neighbors, this home has the spark you’ve been searching for. Picture yourself hosting joyful gatherings in a stunning kitchen with miles of white cabinets and double island that opens to your living room, creating quiet corners for reflection, or watching your family grow in the living room, game and media room all together&mda

Key facts

• Expansive backyard
• Stunning kitchen
• Double island

Tags

• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• DOUBLE ISLAND
• AWARD WINNING COMMUNITY
• WORLD CLASS AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Sienna community association; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, pickleball, basketball court, sport court, playground, dog park, picnic areas and trails; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Concrete road access
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 2021; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Enclosed porch; Private yard with fence in back; Patio and deck (covered, screened); Porch; Subdivision setting; Pond on lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 5 possible bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms located on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas, zoned); Central air conditioning (electric, zoned)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Pots & pan drawers; Pantry; Tub with shower; Vanity; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,309/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $450,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.88%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $594,504
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1807 Watermont Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	3,078 (-5%)	1mo	$535,000	$174	76
2031 Playa Valencia	0.35mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,357 (+4%)	1mo	$624,900	$186	67
2035 Playa Valencia	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,935 (-9%)	1mo	$549,900	$187	66
2119 Orchard Rose Dr	0.43mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,336 (+3%)	0mo	$624,900	$187	63
1539 Watermont Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5	3,002 (-7%)	1mo	$599,000	$200	62
1518 Sunrise View Ln	0.67mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,234 (+0%)	1mo	$590,000	$182	61
10039 Cypress Path	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,348 (+4%)	0mo	$585,000	$175	60
1614 Summer Pine Ct	0.43mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,425 (+6%)	1mo	$630,000	$184	58
10022 Orchard Fld	0.63mi	4/3.5	3,563 (+10%)	1mo	$597,900	$168	50
10018 Foggy Riv	0.65mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,944 (-9%)	1mo	$449,999	$153	48
10927 Maple Mist Dr	0.62mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,973 (-8%)	1mo	$499,900	$168	48
1426 Watermont Dr	0.64mi	4/4.5	2,845 (-12%)	0mo	$524,900	$184	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-43,006
• Equity at exit: $94,378

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-47,220
• Equity at exit: $87,417

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$1,212 /mo · $14,544/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,115
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,926

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $430	+0% $302	+5% $175	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $93	+0% $302	+5% $512	+10% $722
Rate	-1.0pp $529	-0.5pp $417	base $302	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	4d	1	1.20mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	1.46mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 675-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $450,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $14,544 · $1,212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,544 · $1,212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$14,544
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,096
• − Management: −$5,096
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$759
• After-tax cash flow: $4,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $450,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+36.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,544 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.