4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,967 sqft ·
Built 1950
· Other
· Active
· 373 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,350/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$760
Tax + insurance
−$124
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$284
Net cashflow
$182/mo
Annual
$2,180/yr
Cap rate
7.80%
Cash-on-cash
5.37%
DSCR
1.24
1% rule
0.93%
Cash to close
$40,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $145k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (6.9% below list).
It's been on market 373 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#145 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Springfield School District No. Re-4 (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #149 of 176 in CO (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Springfield Elementary School (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #854 of 966 statewide, top 90%, 169 students, 62% FRL); Springfield Junior/Senior High School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #346 of 381 statewide, top 91%, 135 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 44% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Baca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baca County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $105k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 373 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29