Dogwood Plan

Willis, TX 77378

$281,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,310 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,836
• Tax + insurance: −$584
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-696/mo
• Annual: $-8,349/yr
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.51%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $98,052

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $282k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-696 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (22.6% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.