Dogwood Plan · Willis, TX 77378

$281,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,310 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 83 days

🏗️ New construction. The $281,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $350,187.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-696 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,269 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.51%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,187
• List price: $281,990
• Delta: -19.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
725 Ivory Creek Ct	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,356 (+2%)	1mo	$390,000	$166	92
841 Village Brook Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,318 (+0%)	1mo	$307,990	$133	85
237 Draper Shadows Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,241 (-3%)	2mo	$314,990	$141	76
275 Mallards Rim Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,425 (+5%)	2mo	$409,566	$169	63
982 Garden Path Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,069 (-10%)	2mo	$294,990	$143	63
664 Crested Duck Ct	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,444 (+6%)	1mo	$430,399	$176	62
957 Garden Path Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,990 (-14%)	2mo	$289,990	$146	58
526 Cotton Patch Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,198 (-5%)	0mo	$365,000	$166	57
140 Mockingbird Trails Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,513 (+9%)	0mo	$364,990	$145	51
206 Brecon Buff Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,525 (+9%)	2mo	$334,990	$133	50
303 Landes Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-12%)	1mo	$339,990	$167	38
255 Brecon Buff Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-12%)	0mo	$349,990	$173	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-105,373
• Equity at exit: $52,214

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-165,817
• Equity at exit: $30,278

Cash invested: $98,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,836
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$438 /mo · $5,253/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-696

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,063

Max offer price $249,514

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,547
• Closing costs: $10,506
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $281,990 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $281,990 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,990 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,990 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,990 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $281,990 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $281,990 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $281,990 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $281,990 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,990 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $281,990 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $281,990 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,990 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    price $281,490 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

15. 2026-03-27
    listed $280,990 Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,616
• − Property taxes: −$5,253
• − Insurance: −$1,751
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$10,187
• Taxable loss: −$14,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,553
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $281,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Listed $280,990 Zillow