713 Presidio St

Aubrey, TX 76227

$265,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,421 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$609
• HOA: −$44
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-364/mo
• Annual: $-4,365/yr
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.88%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-364 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#332 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hl Brockett (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 529 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey Middle (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 814 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey H S (math 45% / reading 57%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 923 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1925 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Aubrey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.