2635 Evans Mill Dr

Stonecrest, GA 30058

$129,352C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,024 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,561/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$678
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $153/mo
• Annual: $1,842/yr
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.09%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $36,219

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $894 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stoneview Elementary School (math 6% / reading 9%, grade F, #1,125 of 1,228 statewide, top 93%, 781 students, 100% FRL); Lithonia Middle School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #411 of 470 statewide, top 87%, 1,214 students, 100% FRL); Lithonia High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #365 of 424 statewide, top 88%, 1,483 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dekalb County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $129k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.1% in Stonecrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.