21627 Park Valley Dr

Houston, TX 77450

$230,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,043 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$567
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-626/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-626/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (3.4% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Memorial Parkway El (math 36% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 915 students, 81% FRL); Memorial Parkway J H (math 61% / reading 59%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 787 students, 45% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 27% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 396 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $230k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.