21627 Park Valley Dr · Houston, TX 77450

$230,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,043 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1983 7,474 sqft lot Est $313k · 26% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity! Discover the potential in this spacious 4-bedroom, 4-bath home located in a highly sought-after area known for excellent schools, dining, shopping, and entertainment. Offering generous living spaces, a functional layout, and endless possibilities, this property is perfect for buyers looking to add their personal touch and create their dream home. Featuring oversized bedrooms, multiple living and entertaining areas, and strong architectural bones, this home simply needs a little TLC to truly shine. Whether you envision a modern luxury remodel or a warm custom retreat, the opportunity here is unmatched. Enjoy the convenience of being minutes from top-rated schools, premi

Key facts

• 7,474 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ventilation for indoor air quality
• HOA & community: Memorial Parkway HOA with an annual fee of $425

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1983; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Disposal; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (20 x 18); Bedroom on the first floor (16 x 14); Bedroom on the first floor (13 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (13 x 12)
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace; Double vanity; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-626/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Memorial Parkway El (math 36% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 915 students, 81% FRL); Memorial Parkway J H (math 61% / reading 59%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 787 students, 45% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 27% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 396 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $230k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,784 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,579
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21615 Park York Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (-9%)	2mo	$205,000	$110	74
1702 Park Ridge Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,310 (+13%)	1mo	$324,500	$140	65
22030 Shady Valley Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,091 (+2%)	1mo	$389,000	$186	60
21447 Park Mill Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (-7%)	2mo	$275,000	$145	60
21311 Park Holly Ct	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,236 (+9%)	1mo	$325,000	$145	58
723 Park Meadow Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,154 (+5%)	0mo	$310,000	$144	57
21403 Park Post Ln	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,253 (+10%)	2mo	$289,900	$129	56
21210 Park Tree Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,966 (-4%)	1mo	$307,000	$156	54
722 Park Meadow Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,964 (-4%)	2mo	$300,000	$153	54
21127 Park Villa Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,966 (-4%)	1mo	$299,950	$153	53
21335 Rose Hollow Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (-9%)	1mo	$299,999	$161	49
21403 Park Green Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,757 (-14%)	2mo	$299,950	$171	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-46,938
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-69,641
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77450

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 396
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$471 /mo · $5,652/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,289

Max offer price $220,784

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $13	+0% $-52	+5% $-117	+10% $-182
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-140	+0% $-52	+5% $36	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $6	base $-52	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21707 Park Bend Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	45d	1	0.23mi
21430 Park Brook Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2248	$2,300	$1.02	20d	1	0.25mi
21407 Highland Knolls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,721	$1.01	26d	1	0.36mi
21610 Park Wick Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2150	$2,150	$1.00	14d	1	0.46mi
21226 Park Run Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,100	$1.15	22d	1	0.48mi
21219 Park Bluff Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,771	$1.22	26d	1	0.57mi
719 Park Knoll Ln Katy, TX	4.0	4.5	2460	$6,800	$2.76	14d	1	0.64mi
1335 Westgreen Blvd Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2497	$2,455	$0.98	45d	1	0.69mi
2005 S Mason Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1142	$2,166	$1.90	0d	24	0.77mi
2495 S Mason Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,139	$2.01	0d	16	1.12mi
21540 Provincial Blvd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$2,149	$2.04	0d	48	1.18mi
1046 Apache Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,400	$1.33	26d	1	1.19mi
451 Gentilly Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1818	$1,875	$1.03	7d	1	1.24mi
451 Gentilly Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1818	$1,875	$1.03	1d	1	1.24mi
22923 Rainbow Bend Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2448	$2,325	$0.95	7d	1	1.26mi
918 Cheyenne Meadows Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,821	$1.01	24d	1	1.36mi
1427 Roundleaf Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2823	$3,400	$1.20	26d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $230,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $230,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $230,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-05-22
    listed $230,000 Active
13. 2008-10-17
    soldstatus
14. 2001-02-14
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,652 · $471/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,652 · $471/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$5,652
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,134
• − Management: −$2,134
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,054
• After-tax cash flow: $428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,906
• Household income: $106,402
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2259.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Asian 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.50%
• Current HPI: 244.792
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.13%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+155.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2008-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,652 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.