9321 Alamosa Dr

Brownsville, TX 78520

$169,999D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 910 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,268/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-842/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-842/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (25.4% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $127k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Villa Nueva El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 361 students, 94% FRL); Stillman Middle (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 1,095 students, 68% FRL); Veterans Memorial Early College H S (math 33% / reading 69%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 2,172 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.