9321 Alamosa Dr · Brownsville, TX 78520

$169,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2024 5,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newer home less than 2 years old with 2 bedrooms plus a Bonus room that could be an additional bedroom on a fully fenced in lot. Home features tile floors, granite countertops, built-in fireplace, recessed lighting, indoor laundry and more. Hurry this home won't last long!

Key facts

• Tile floors
• Built-in fireplace
• Recessed lighting

Tags

• FULLY FENCED IN LOT
• TILE FLOORS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BUILT-IN FIREPLACE
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• INDOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story house; Located in Hacienda West subdivision
• Construction: Stone, stucco, and wood siding exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-842/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Villa Nueva El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 361 students, 94% FRL); Stillman Middle (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 1,095 students, 68% FRL); Veterans Memorial Early College H S (math 33% / reading 69%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 2,172 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,822 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-25,360
• Equity at exit: $25,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,485
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78520

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,317/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,357

Max offer price $157,597

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $26	-5% $-22	+0% $-70	+5% $-118	+10% $-166
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-120	+0% $-70	+5% $-20	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-27	base $-70	+0.5pp $-114	+1.0pp $-159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $169,999 Active
2. 2022-10-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,317 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,794/yr (+$149/mo · 136.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,317
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$924
• After-tax cash flow: $82/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 64,740
• Household income: $50,116
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1800.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 44% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.91%
• Current HPI: 214.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.41%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $169,999 RGVMLS
• 2022-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+23.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,317 · +122.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.