2151 Pacheco #93

Los Banos, CA 93635

$79,999B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,484/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $1,493/mo
• Annual: $17,911/yr
• Cap rate: 28.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.96%
• DSCR: 4.56
• 1% rule: 3.10%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#270 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Los Banos Unified (town): math 3% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #503 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mercey Springs Elementary (651 students, 82% FRL); Los Banos Junior High (862 students, 79% FRL); Pacheco High (1,799 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 62% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 28.7% vs local median 3.4% in Los Banos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.