2151 Pacheco #93 · Los Banos, CA 93635

$79,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 1982 Est $110k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3BD/2B mobile home offering approximately 1,344 sqft of living space. The home features a covered deck and a functional floor plan with a primary bedroom and additional bedrooms providing flexible living space. Property presents an opportunity for updates and personalization. Suitable for buyers seeking a property with potential to improve and customize.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Parking
• Built 1982

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.7% vs local median 3.4% in Los Banos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#270 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Los Banos Unified (town): math 3% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #503 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mercey Springs Elementary (651 students, 82% FRL); Los Banos Junior High (862 students, 79% FRL); Pacheco High (1,799 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 62% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $77,599 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.96%
• DSCR: 4.56
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,208
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2151 Pacheco #93	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$60,000	$45	99
2151 E Pacheco Blvd #63	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$165,000	$123	98
2151 E Pacheco Blvd #83	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$105,000	$73	81
2151 E Pacheco Blvd #92	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$118,500	$82	74
2151 E Pacheco Blvd #57	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-12%)	12mo	$140,000	$118	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $91,221
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.81×
• Total profit: $242,094
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93635

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $199/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $1,493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,538	-5% $1,515	+0% $1,493	+5% $1,470	+10% $1,447
Rent	-10% $1,296	-5% $1,395	+0% $1,493	+5% $1,591	+10% $1,689
Rate	-1.0pp $1,533	-0.5pp $1,513	base $1,493	+0.5pp $1,472	+1.0pp $1,451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2306 N Rock Creek Dr Los Banos, CA	3.0	2.0	1796	$2,350	$1.31	15d	1	0.56mi
2988 La Vina Cir Los Banos, CA	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,900	$1.39	15d	1	0.99mi
1052 Jefferson Ave Los Banos, CA	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,900	$2.04	15d	1	1.04mi
645 E St Los Banos, CA	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,900	$1.72	15d	1	1.34mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $199 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 206.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$199
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,384
• − Management: −$2,384
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $17,627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,231
• After-tax cash flow: $13,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Banos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622740
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $48,783
• Composite: 9.04/100
• National rank: #9875
• State rank: #503 of 517 in CA

Livability — Los Banos

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #9141

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Banos, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 50,149
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,149
• Household income: $67,129
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% White 20% Two or more races 12% Native American 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -357.30%
• Current HPI: 217.6528
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.53%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2020): $199 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.