21 bd · 9.8 ba ·
2,088 sqft ·
Built 1978
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$7,578/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$818
Tax + insurance
−$320
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,591
Net cashflow
$4,849/mo
Annual
$58,189/yr
Cap rate
43.62%
Cash-on-cash
133.30%
DSCR
6.93
1% rule
4.86%
Cash to close
$43,652
Investor read
This is a 7 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $156k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($58k/yr) — positive. Per door: $693/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $156k).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $151k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mark Twain Elem. (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #910 of 1,115 statewide, top 83%, 315 students, 99% FRL); Central High (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,728 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 53% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 43.6% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $7,578/mo this rent would consume 139% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 686% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VMHKP28RPXZMC8
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29