405 Heritage Vlg Unit D

Heritage Village, CT 06488

$179,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Under Contract · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,287/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$647
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-274/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-274/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (2.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#112 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Regional School District 15 (suburban): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #46 of 153 in CT (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Heritage Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?