405 Heritage Vlg Unit D · Heritage Village, CT 06488

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · Condo public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1970 $172/sqft · 29% below area Est $254k · 29% under $647/mo HOA · 28% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One level living at this 55 and over community with awesome accommodations and plenty of recreational activities! This Ethan Allen-style upper ranch unit features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a balcony for maximum relation and enough room for private enjoyment. Top notch immeneties include, pools, a clubhouse, tennis, and pickleball courts, with many more clubs and activities to get involved in. This is the ideal community for premium immeneties, social engagement, and proximity to medical, shooping centers and restaurants. This unit also features a garage and is priced to sell!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Pickleball courts
• Balcony

Tags

• BALCONY
• POOLS
• CLUBHOUSE
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• PROXIMITY TO MEDICAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-274/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (2.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Heritage Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#112 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Regional School District 15 (suburban): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #46 of 153 in CT (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,909
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -29.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-30,211
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-26,575
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06488

• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,287 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,973/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$647
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,316

Max offer price $175,867

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
235 Heritage Vlg Unit B Southbury, CT	1.0	1.0	928	$2,100	$2.26	23d	1	0.35mi
593 Heritage Vlg Unit D Southbury, CT	2.0	2.0	1044	$2,300	$2.20	23d	1	0.59mi
27 Heritage Vlg Unit B Southbury, CT	2.0	2.0	1432	$2,600	$1.82	11d	1	0.67mi
85 Hicock Dr Unit D Southbury, CT	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	11d	1	0.70mi
576 Village St Unit D Southbury, CT	2.0	2.0	1044	$2,400	$2.30	3d	1	0.94mi
576 Village St Unit D Southbury, CT	2.0	2.0	1044	$2,400	$2.30	23d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $647 · $7,764/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $179,900 Under Contract 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,900 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,900 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,900 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,900 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    price $179,900 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    One level living at this 55 and over community with awesome accommodations and plenty of recreational activities! This Ethan Allen-style upper ranch unit features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a balcony for maximum relation and enough room for private enjoyment. Top notch immeneties include, pools, a clubhouse, tennis, and pickleball courts, with many more clubs and activities to get involved in. This is the ideal community for premium immeneties, social engagement, and proximity to medical, shooping centers and restaurants. This unit also features a garage and is priced to sell!

11. 2026-04-24
    status Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    One level living at this 55 and over community with awesome accommodations and plenty of recreational activities! This Ethan Allen-style upper ranch unit features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a balcony for maximum relation and enough room for private enjoyment. Top notch immeneties include, pools, a clubhouse, tennis, and pickleball courts, with many more clubs and activities to get involved in. This is the ideal community for premium immeneties, social engagement, and proximity to medical, shooping centers and restaurants. This unit also features a garage and is priced to sell!

12. 2026-04-04
    status Under Contract 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    One level living at this 55 and over community with awesome accommodations and plenty of recreational activities! This Ethan Allen-style upper ranch unit features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a balcony for maximum relation and enough room for private enjoyment. Top notch immeneties include, pools, a clubhouse, tennis, and pickleball courts, with many more clubs and activities to get involved in. This is the ideal community for premium immeneties, social engagement, and proximity to medical, shooping centers and restaurants. This unit also features a garage and is priced to sell!

13. 2026-03-24
    price $189,900 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    One level living at this 55 and over community with awesome accommodations and plenty of recreational activities! This Ethan Allen-style upper ranch unit features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a balcony for maximum relation and enough room for private enjoyment. Top notch immeneties include, pools, a clubhouse, tennis, and pickleball courts, with many more clubs and activities to get involved in. This is the ideal community for premium immeneties, social engagement, and proximity to medical, shooping centers and restaurants. This unit also features a garage and is priced to sell!

14. 2026-01-18
    listed $199,900 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    One level living at this 55 and over community with awesome accommodations and plenty of recreational activities! This Ethan Allen-style upper ranch unit features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a balcony for maximum relation and enough room for private enjoyment. Top notch immeneties include, pools, a clubhouse, tennis, and pickleball courts, with many more clubs and activities to get involved in. This is the ideal community for premium immeneties, social engagement, and proximity to medical, shooping centers and restaurants. This unit also features a garage and is priced to sell!

15. 2025-12-01
    historical
16. 2025-11-02
    price $209,000
17. 2025-09-30
    listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,973 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,911 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$938/yr (+$78/mo · 47.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,973
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,196
• − Management: −$2,196
• − HOA: −$7,764
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,891
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$694
• After-tax cash flow: $420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 15
• NCES district ID: 0903537
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $84,697
• Composite: 54.36/100
• National rank: #1361
• State rank: #46 of 153 in CT

Livability — Heritage Village

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #9662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heritage Village, CT
• City population: 19,973
• Population (ZIP): 19,973

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.35%
• Current HPI: 165.0514
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $179,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-04 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $189,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-01-18 Listed $199,900 Smart MLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $209,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $219,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,973 · +44.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.