2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,238 sqft ·
Built 1984
· Condo
· Under Contract
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,795/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$333
HOA
−$330
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$377
Net cashflow
$-294/mo
Annual
$-3,531/yr
Cap rate
4.53%
Cash-on-cash
-6.30%
DSCR
0.72
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k. Condition is rated average.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (10.3% below list).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $179k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Ft. Zumwalt R-II (suburban): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #14 of 324 in MO (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Deck
— Deck appears to have some wear and tear.
Minor: Landscaping
— Landscaping appears somewhat sparse and in need of maintenance.
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29