11165 Joel St

Jacksonville, FL 32218

$239,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,193 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,838/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$398
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-199/mo
• Annual: $-2,392/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (23.1% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $184k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: San Mateo Elementary School (math 67% / reading 63%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 534 students, 48% FRL); Oceanway School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 927 students, 51% FRL); First Coast High School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,117 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.