11165 Joel St · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$239,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,193 sqft · Land · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 5,662 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand-new construction with thoughtful design and modern finishes! This two-story 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers 1,193 sq ft of heated living space with an open-concept first floor featuring a spacious living room, dedicated dining area, and a well-appointed kitchen with ample counter space and a pantry. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and ensuite bath, while two additional bedrooms share a full bath. Enjoy outdoor living on the rear patio and the convenience of a 1-car garage. Clean lines, Hardie exterior accents, and Craftsman-inspired details create charming curb appeal. Perfect for low-maintenance living with all the comfort of a new build!

Key facts

• New construction
• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT FEATURES
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Construction materials and year built not provided; Foundation information not provided; Roof information not provided
• Exterior features: Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (main and second level bedrooms listed)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen island; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electricity connected

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: San Mateo Elementary School (math 67% / reading 63%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 534 students, 48% FRL); Oceanway School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 927 students, 51% FRL); First Coast High School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,117 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $183,839 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-56,785
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-86,504
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 735
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $210,154

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-117	+0% $-199	+5% $-282	+10% $-365
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-272	+0% $-199	+5% $-127	+10% $-54
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-139	base $-199	+0.5pp $-261	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $239,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-02-18
    price $239,000
16. 2026-01-12
    listed $250,000 Active
17. 2026-01-06
    historical 683-char remark

    Show marketing remark (683 chars)

    Brand-new construction with thoughtful design and modern finishes! This two-story 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers 1,193 sq ft of heated living space with an open-concept first floor featuring a spacious living room, dedicated dining area, and a well-appointed kitchen with ample counter space and a pantry. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and ensuite bath, while two additional bedrooms share a full bath. Enjoy outdoor living on the rear patio and the convenience of a 1-car garage. Clean lines, Hardie exterior accents, and Craftsman-inspired details create charming curb appeal. Perfect for low-maintenance living with all the comfort of a new build!

18. 2025-12-04
    listed $250,000 Active 683-char remark

    Show marketing remark (683 chars)

    Brand-new construction with thoughtful design and modern finishes! This two-story 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers 1,193 sq ft of heated living space with an open-concept first floor featuring a spacious living room, dedicated dining area, and a well-appointed kitchen with ample counter space and a pantry. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and ensuite bath, while two additional bedrooms share a full bath. Enjoy outdoor living on the rear patio and the convenience of a 1-car garage. Clean lines, Hardie exterior accents, and Craftsman-inspired details create charming curb appeal. Perfect for low-maintenance living with all the comfort of a new build!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$6,589
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,581
• After-tax cash flow: $-811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $239,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $250,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $250,000 realMLS