315 Parisen Ave

Forked River, NJ 08721

$665,000C+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,232 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,560/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,487
• Tax + insurance: −$1,368
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,798
• Net cashflow: $1,907/mo
• Annual: $22,881/yr
• Cap rate: 10.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.04%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $186,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $665k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $665k).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($605k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $605k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 13 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $576k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $186k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.