315 Parisen Ave · Forked River, NJ 08721

$665,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2023 9,583 sqft lot Est $632k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW MOVE IN READY! Front porch welcomes you into an open floor plan, waterproof floors, spacious living and dining room which leads to the kitchen. Gorgeous top of the line kitchen with quartz countertops, tile backsplash, and all the appliances, including a wine cooler. Main floor features beautiful full bath, bedroom, and laundry room. Top floor features hardwood throughout and has a huge primary suite with jetted tub, double sinks, large windows, and plenty of closet space. Two more bedrooms upstairs with another fully tiled beautiful bathroom. Also features fenced in yard with plenty of green space and 2 car garage. Be the first one to call this home!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Fenced in yard
• 9,583 sq ft lot

Tags

• CUSTOM SHORE COLONIAL
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• FENCED IN YARD
• CLOSE TO BARNEGAT BAY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Custom built; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Timberline roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-out basement; Other flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $665k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $665k).
• Recommended offer: $605k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $186k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($605k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $576k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $605,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.04%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $631,656
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
186 Brennan Concourse	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,478 (+11%)	20mo	$590,000	$238	61
265 Cypress Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,163 (-3%)	7mo	$1,050,000	$485	59
817 Bunnell St	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,218 (-1%)	22mo	$511,500	$231	49
100 Cedar Run Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,334 (+5%)	19mo	$660,000	$283	44
910 Meadow Lark Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	1,969 (-12%)	23mo	$715,000	$363	39
—	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,310 (+4%)	21mo	$575,000	$249	37
—	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,991 (-11%)	19mo	$340,990	$171	31
248 Cypress Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,909 (-14%)	22mo	$750,000	$393	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $13,971
• Equity at exit: $99,154

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $169,713
• Equity at exit: $57,497

Cash invested: $186,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08721

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,487
• Tax from tax record: −$665 /mo · $7,977/yr
• Insurance: −$277
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,798
• Net cashflow: $1,907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,146

Max offer price $665,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $166,250
• Closing costs: $19,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	1d	1	0.88mi
830 Atlantic City Blvd Bayville, NJ	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,800	$1.61	43d	1	1.27mi
605 Farrelly Ave Bayville, NJ	5.0	3.0	2274	$3,500	$1.54	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   price $665,000
3. 2026-02-13
   price $685,000
4. 2026-02-11
   status Active
5. 2026-01-26
   status Pending
6. 2025-12-04
   listed $700,000 Active
7. 2023-12-14
   listed $599,000 Active
8. 2023-09-29
   soldstatus $575,888 Closed 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   BRAND NEW MOVE IN READY! Front porch welcomes you into an open floor plan, waterproof floors, spacious living and dining room which leads to the kitchen. Gorgeous top of the line kitchen with quartz countertops, tile backsplash, and all the appliances, including a wine cooler. Main floor features beautiful full bath, bedroom, and laundry room. Top floor features hardwood throughout and has a huge primary suite with jetted tub, double sinks, large windows, and plenty of closet space. Two more bedrooms upstairs with another fully tiled beautiful bathroom. Also features fenced in yard with plenty of green space and 2 car garage. Be the first one to call this home!

9. 2023-09-29
   soldstatus $575,888 Closed

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   BRAND NEW MOVE IN READY! Front porch welcomes you into an open floor plan, waterproof floors, spacious living and dining room which leads to the kitchen. Gorgeous top of the line kitchen with quartz countertops, tile backsplash, and all the appliances, including a wine cooler. Main floor features beautiful full bath, bedroom, and laundry room. Top floor features hardwood throughout and has a huge primary suite with jetted tub, double sinks, large windows, and plenty of closet space. Two more bedrooms upstairs with another fully tiled beautiful bathroom. Also features fenced in yard with plenty of green space and 2 car garage. Be the first one to call this home!

10. 2023-09-21
    status Pending
11. 2023-07-18
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    BRAND NEW MOVE IN READY! Front porch welcomes you into an open floor plan, waterproof floors, spacious living and dining room which leads to the kitchen. Gorgeous top of the line kitchen with quartz countertops, tile backsplash, and all the appliances, including a wine cooler. Main floor features beautiful full bath, bedroom, and laundry room. Top floor features hardwood throughout and has a huge primary suite with jetted tub, double sinks, large windows, and plenty of closet space. Two more bedrooms upstairs with another fully tiled beautiful bathroom. Also features fenced in yard with plenty of green space and 2 car garage. Be the first one to call this home!

12. 2023-07-18
    historical Active Under Contract 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    BRAND NEW MOVE IN READY! Front porch welcomes you into an open floor plan, waterproof floors, spacious living and dining room which leads to the kitchen. Gorgeous top of the line kitchen with quartz countertops, tile backsplash, and all the appliances, including a wine cooler. Main floor features beautiful full bath, bedroom, and laundry room. Top floor features hardwood throughout and has a huge primary suite with jetted tub, double sinks, large windows, and plenty of closet space. Two more bedrooms upstairs with another fully tiled beautiful bathroom. Also features fenced in yard with plenty of green space and 2 car garage. Be the first one to call this home!

13. 2023-06-01
    listed $575,888 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    BRAND NEW MOVE IN READY! Front porch welcomes you into an open floor plan, waterproof floors, spacious living and dining room which leads to the kitchen. Gorgeous top of the line kitchen with quartz countertops, tile backsplash, and all the appliances, including a wine cooler. Main floor features beautiful full bath, bedroom, and laundry room. Top floor features hardwood throughout and has a huge primary suite with jetted tub, double sinks, large windows, and plenty of closet space. Two more bedrooms upstairs with another fully tiled beautiful bathroom. Also features fenced in yard with plenty of green space and 2 car garage. Be the first one to call this home!

14. 2023-06-01
    listed $575,888 Active

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    BRAND NEW MOVE IN READY! Front porch welcomes you into an open floor plan, waterproof floors, spacious living and dining room which leads to the kitchen. Gorgeous top of the line kitchen with quartz countertops, tile backsplash, and all the appliances, including a wine cooler. Main floor features beautiful full bath, bedroom, and laundry room. Top floor features hardwood throughout and has a huge primary suite with jetted tub, double sinks, large windows, and plenty of closet space. Two more bedrooms upstairs with another fully tiled beautiful bathroom. Also features fenced in yard with plenty of green space and 2 car garage. Be the first one to call this home!

15. 2018-09-17
    soldstatus $51,000
16. 2018-09-05
    soldstatus $51,000 Sold
17. 2018-08-03
    status Pending
18. 2018-07-18
    price $69,900
19. 2018-06-07
    price $74,800
20. 2018-05-12
    listed $78,000 Active
21. 2018-05-08
    soldstatus $29,100 Sold
22. 2018-04-19
    status Pending
23. 2018-04-06
    listed $29,000 Active
24. 2018-04-01
    historical
25. 2018-02-09
    price $29,000
26. 2018-01-10
    price $35,000
27. 2017-11-14
    price $39,000
28. 2017-09-11
    listed $43,000 Active
29. 2014-03-02
    listed $249,900
30. 2013-07-02
    historical
31. 2013-05-23
    listed $259,500
32. 2013-04-01
    historical
33. 2011-09-29
    listed $259,500
34. 2009-12-14
    listed $259,500
35. 2004-06-30
    soldstatus $109,900
36. 2004-06-30
    soldstatus $219,000
37. 2000-01-04
    soldstatus $109,900
38. 1999-12-27
    soldstatus $109,900
39. 1999-11-17
    historical
40. 1999-10-19
    listed $109,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,977 · $665/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,268 · $1,022/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,291/yr (+$358/mo · 53.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $102,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,250
• − Property taxes: −$7,977
• − Insurance: −$8,444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,218
• − Management: −$8,218
• − Depreciation: −$19,345
• Taxable income: $13,269
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,185
• After-tax cash flow: $19,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,464

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -320.09%
• Current HPI: 346.8393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+505.1% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $665,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $685,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-11 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-01-26 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $700,000 MOMLS
• 2023-12-14 Listed $599,000 MOMLS
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) $575,888 MOMLS
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) $575,888 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-09-21 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-07-18 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-07-18 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-01 Listed $575,888 MOMLS
• 2023-06-01 Listed $575,888 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-05 Sold (MLS) $51,000 MOMLS
• 2018-08-03 Pending — MOMLS
• 2018-07-18 Price Changed $69,900 MOMLS
• 2018-06-07 Price Changed $74,800 MOMLS
• 2018-05-12 Listed $78,000 MOMLS
• 2018-05-08 Sold (MLS) $29,100 MOMLS
• 2018-04-19 Pending — MOMLS
• 2018-04-06 Listed $29,000 MOMLS
• 2018-04-01 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2018-02-09 Price Changed $29,000 MOMLS
• 2018-01-10 Price Changed $35,000 MOMLS
• 2017-11-14 Price Changed $39,000 MOMLS
• 2017-09-11 Listed $43,000 MOMLS
• 2014-03-02 Listed $249,900 MOMLS
• 2013-07-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-05-23 Listed $259,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-04-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-09-29 Listed $259,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-12-14 Listed $259,500 MOMLS
• 2004-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $219,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $109,900 Public Records
• 2000-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $109,900 Public Records
• 1999-12-27 Sold (MLS) $109,900 MOMLS
• 1999-11-17 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1999-10-19 Listed $109,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

+23.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,977 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.