12913 Fairway Dr Unit D

Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$133,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,642/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$702
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$445
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-979/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $37,492

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $134k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-979/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (10.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Hudson Academy (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 964 students, 80% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 800 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $134k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?