12913 Fairway Dr Unit D · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$133,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Condo public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1979 $445/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your own slice of Florida paradise! This beautifully maintained 55+ second-floor end-unit condo is bright, airy, and move-in ready. Natural light fills the home through numerous windows, a wonderful benefit of the desirable end-unit location. The thoughtfully designed floor plan feels open, comfortable, and inviting from the moment you enter. Enjoy your morning coffee on the private kitchen patio while taking in peaceful surroundings and gentle Florida breezes. The kitchen includes all appliances, including a washer and dryer, plus a convenient pantry and laundry closet. The dining room offers flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Use it as a dining space, home office, study, hobby

Key facts

• Views of fairways
• Screened porch
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• PRIVATE KITCHEN PATIO
• SCREENED PORCH
• VIEWS OF FAIRWAYS
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• HEATED POOL
• LIGHTED TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association fee includes: cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, insurance, structure and grounds maintenance, management, sewer, trash, water
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA with required association approval; Monthly condo fee of $445 (annual total $5,340); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, cable TV, maintenance, vehicle restrictions; Community features: clubhouse, community mailbox, pool, street lights, buyer approval required, no truck/RV/motorcycle parking; Pets allowed: cats OK with number limit; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential condominium, attached; One story; Second-floor unit; East-facing
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with durable masonry materials
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed, screened front and rear porches; Covered patio/porch; Private setting; Near golf course; Mature landscaping; Asphalt roads with private maintenance; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Exhaust fan; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Split bedroom plan; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Aluminum window frames; Sliding doors; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-979/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (10.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 799 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $134k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,485 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-31,404
• Equity at exit: $19,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-51,406
• Equity at exit: $11,577

Cash invested: $37,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 799
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,642 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$702
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,113/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$445
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,746

Max offer price $119,485

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-6	-5% $-44	+0% $-82	+5% $-119	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-211	-5% $-146	+0% $-82	+5% $-17	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-48	base $-82	+0.5pp $-116	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,475
• Closing costs: $4,017
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8305 Sandwedge Cir Unit A Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,450	$1.27	23d	1	0.07mi
13102 Pembrook Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1221	$1,575	$1.29	25d	1	0.37mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	25d	1	0.47mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	0d	1	0.47mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	25d	1	0.47mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	25d	1	0.85mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	6d	1	0.88mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	25d	1	0.89mi
12221 Holbrook Dr Bayonet Point, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	761	$1,685	$2.21	0d	55	0.90mi
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	19d	1	0.94mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,468	$1.33	4d	10	1.01mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	6d	1	1.02mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	25d	1	1.04mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	19d	1	1.04mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	4d	1	1.05mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	25d	1	1.08mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	6d	1	1.21mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	23d	1	1.21mi
11635 Salmon Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	816	$1,500	$1.84	25d	1	1.27mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	14d	1	1.31mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	25d	1	1.38mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	12d	1	1.38mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	14d	1	1.39mi
13847 Maria Dr Hudson beach34674, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$3,000	$2.07	25d	1	1.43mi
12909 Litewood Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	984	$1,645	$1.67	19d	1	1.48mi
12909 Litewood Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,645	$1.65	25d	1	1.48mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $445 · $5,340/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $133,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $133,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $133,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $133,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $133,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $133,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $133,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $133,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $133,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $133,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $133,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,113 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,113 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,500
• − Property taxes: −$2,113
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,577
• − Management: −$1,577
• − HOA: −$5,340
• − Depreciation: −$3,895
• Taxable loss: −$2,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$711
• After-tax cash flow: $-268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+162.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $133,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-08 Price Changed $178,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-23 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,113 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.