29 Thomas Lake Rd

Riverside, TX 77367

$189,900C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,370 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 581 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,666/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$12
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-8/mo
• Annual: $-99/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-99/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.3% below list).
• It's been on market 581 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,150 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 581 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic update needed.
• Minor: Appliances — Update to modern appliances would be beneficial.