29 Thomas Lake Rd · Riverside, TX 77367

$189,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,370 sqft · SingleFamily · 581 Days on market

Built 1975 Average condition 9,095 sqft lot $139/sqft · 38% below area Est $309k · 38% under $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

5 bedroom fully furnished waterfront home located in quiet neighborhood 5 miles east of Riverside in Carolina Cove. Home comes fully furnished with furniture and appliances . No need to buy anything. Around corner from a cove with a boat ramp that leads to the trinity river that is the upper end of Lake Livingston, Home has beautiful setting with view of Lake Clair which is right outside back door with a fishing pier. Has good fishing with bass, perch and catfish. Can sleep at least 11 with 3 king beds,1 queen, 1full and 1 single . Includes' wooded vacant lot next door. Come relax in a beautiful setting as a permanent or weekend home. Never flooded

Key facts

• 9,095 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-99/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,150 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 581 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,601 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 581 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,607
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -38.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $22,386
• Equity at exit: $85,387

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $80,499
• Equity at exit: $131,592

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77367

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $188,712

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,900 Active 581 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 580 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 579 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 578 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 577 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 575 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 574 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 572 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 571 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 570 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 569 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 566 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 565 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 564 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 563 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 562 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 561 DOM
18. 2025-10-04
    status Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    5 bedroom fully furnished waterfront home located in quiet neighborhood 5 miles east of Riverside in Carolina Cove. Home comes fully furnished with furniture and appliances . No need to buy anything. Around corner from a cove with a boat ramp that leads to the trinity river that is the upper end of Lake Livingston, Home has beautiful setting with view of Lake Clair which is right outside back door with a fishing pier. Has good fishing with bass, perch and catfish. Can sleep at least 11 with 3 king beds,1 queen, 1full and 1 single . Includes' wooded vacant lot next door. Come relax in a beautiful setting as a permanent or weekend home. Never flooded

19. 2025-09-30
    historical 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    5 bedroom fully furnished waterfront home located in quiet neighborhood 5 miles east of Riverside in Carolina Cove. Home comes fully furnished with furniture and appliances . No need to buy anything. Around corner from a cove with a boat ramp that leads to the trinity river that is the upper end of Lake Livingston, Home has beautiful setting with view of Lake Clair which is right outside back door with a fishing pier. Has good fishing with bass, perch and catfish. Can sleep at least 11 with 3 king beds,1 queen, 1full and 1 single . Includes' wooded vacant lot next door. Come relax in a beautiful setting as a permanent or weekend home. Never flooded

20. 2025-08-30
    price $189,900 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    5 bedroom fully furnished waterfront home located in quiet neighborhood 5 miles east of Riverside in Carolina Cove. Home comes fully furnished with furniture and appliances . No need to buy anything. Around corner from a cove with a boat ramp that leads to the trinity river that is the upper end of Lake Livingston, Home has beautiful setting with view of Lake Clair which is right outside back door with a fishing pier. Has good fishing with bass, perch and catfish. Can sleep at least 11 with 3 king beds,1 queen, 1full and 1 single . Includes' wooded vacant lot next door. Come relax in a beautiful setting as a permanent or weekend home. Never flooded

21. 2025-07-14
    price $199,999 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    5 bedroom fully furnished waterfront home located in quiet neighborhood 5 miles east of Riverside in Carolina Cove. Home comes fully furnished with furniture and appliances . No need to buy anything. Around corner from a cove with a boat ramp that leads to the trinity river that is the upper end of Lake Livingston, Home has beautiful setting with view of Lake Clair which is right outside back door with a fishing pier. Has good fishing with bass, perch and catfish. Can sleep at least 11 with 3 king beds,1 queen, 1full and 1 single . Includes' wooded vacant lot next door. Come relax in a beautiful setting as a permanent or weekend home. Never flooded

22. 2025-04-15
    price $219,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    5 bedroom fully furnished waterfront home located in quiet neighborhood 5 miles east of Riverside in Carolina Cove. Home comes fully furnished with furniture and appliances . No need to buy anything. Around corner from a cove with a boat ramp that leads to the trinity river that is the upper end of Lake Livingston, Home has beautiful setting with view of Lake Clair which is right outside back door with a fishing pier. Has good fishing with bass, perch and catfish. Can sleep at least 11 with 3 king beds,1 queen, 1full and 1 single . Includes' wooded vacant lot next door. Come relax in a beautiful setting as a permanent or weekend home. Never flooded

23. 2025-03-24
    price $235,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    5 bedroom fully furnished waterfront home located in quiet neighborhood 5 miles east of Riverside in Carolina Cove. Home comes fully furnished with furniture and appliances . No need to buy anything. Around corner from a cove with a boat ramp that leads to the trinity river that is the upper end of Lake Livingston, Home has beautiful setting with view of Lake Clair which is right outside back door with a fishing pier. Has good fishing with bass, perch and catfish. Can sleep at least 11 with 3 king beds,1 queen, 1full and 1 single . Includes' wooded vacant lot next door. Come relax in a beautiful setting as a permanent or weekend home. Never flooded

24. 2024-11-11
    listed $239,000 Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    5 bedroom fully furnished waterfront home located in quiet neighborhood 5 miles east of Riverside in Carolina Cove. Home comes fully furnished with furniture and appliances . No need to buy anything. Around corner from a cove with a boat ramp that leads to the trinity river that is the upper end of Lake Livingston, Home has beautiful setting with view of Lake Clair which is right outside back door with a fishing pier. Has good fishing with bass, perch and catfish. Can sleep at least 11 with 3 king beds,1 queen, 1full and 1 single . Includes' wooded vacant lot next door. Come relax in a beautiful setting as a permanent or weekend home. Never flooded

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,599
• − Management: −$1,599
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$3,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$794
• After-tax cash flow: $696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained, fully furnished home with a waterfront view. Minor cosmetic updates and appliance replacements would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic update needed.
• Minor Appliances — Update to modern appliances would be beneficial.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value.
• Both Replace appliances with modern models — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Aesthetic update needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
Appliances · Update to modern appliances would be beneficial.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value. ↑
• Both Replace appliances with modern models — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 25.71/100
• National rank: #7383
• State rank: #621 of 826 in TX

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1150
• US rank: #20204

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 634
• Population (ZIP): 634

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Pacific Islander 11% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 31% Italian 10% Serbian 5%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-11 Listed $239,000 HARMLS