16 Vail Rd

Vail, CO 81657

$249,000B+

6 bd · 7.0 ba · 6,081 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 543 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,165/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$817
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$875
• Net cashflow: $752/mo
• Annual: $9,027/yr
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.95%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/7.0-bath condo listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $752 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• It's been on market 543 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#76 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Eagle County School District No. RE-50 (town): math 22% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #39 of 86 in CO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 387 units permitted in Eagle County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eagle County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 17 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $176k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 0.5% in Vail — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,165/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 262% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 543 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.