16 Vail Rd · Vail, CO 81657

$249,000

6 bd · 7.0 ba · 6,081 sqft · Condo public records · 543 Days on market

Built 2007 $817/mo HOA · 20% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy luxury mountain living with fixed peak ski Weeks 8 and 9 in a beautifully appointed 2-bedroom, 3-bath residence at The Sebastian - Vail in the heart of Vail, Colorado. This designer-inspired condo offers stunning views of Vail Mountain from the residence and two spacious decks, along with a stone-surround fireplace, slab granite countertops, heated marble floors, and elegant mountain contemporary furnishings. The flexible floor plan allows both bedrooms to be locked off for personal use or rental potential. Owners enjoy a full-service resort experience with valet parking, Basecamp ski valet just steps from Gondola One, daily housekeeping, and concierge services. Luxury amenities include a large heated outdoor pool, four hot tubs overlooking Vail Mountain, a state-of-the-art fitness center with mountain views, and rejuvenating treatments at Bloom Spa. Dining and après-ski options include the iconic The Gambit Bar and the resort's newest restaurant Leonora, all just steps from your residence. Private Residence Club ownership is a deeded fractional real estate interest offering guaranteed prime ski weeks, additional space-available time, and the ability to transfer or sell ownership. Owners also have the ability to rent out their weeks.

Key facts

• Planned summer week
• Indulgent amenities
• Planned winter week

Tags

• DEEDED FRACTIONAL OWNERSHIP
• PLANNED SUMMER WEEK
• PLANNED WINTER WEEK
• TIMBERS RECIPROCITY PROGRAM
• HASSLE-FREE SKI VACATION
• INDULGENT AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/7.0-bath condo listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $752 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 0.5% in Vail — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#76 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Eagle County School District No. RE-50 (town): math 22% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #39 of 86 in CO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 387 units permitted in Eagle County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,165/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 262% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Eagle County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 543 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $176k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 543 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.95%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $163,155
• Equity at exit: $202,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.31×
• Total profit: $440,001
• Equity at exit: $414,013

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81657

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$817
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$875
• Net cashflow: $752

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,212

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $817 · $9,804/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymdoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 543 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 542 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 541 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 540 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 539 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 537 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 536 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 533 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 532 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 531 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 528 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 527 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 526 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 525 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 524 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 523 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    soldstatus $425,000 Closed 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    Enjoy luxury mountain living with fixed peak ski Weeks 8 and 9 in a beautifully appointed 2-bedroom, 3-bath residence at The Sebastian - Vail in the heart of Vail, Colorado. This designer-inspired condo offers stunning views of Vail Mountain from the residence and two spacious decks, along with a stone-surround fireplace, slab granite countertops, heated marble floors, and elegant mountain contemporary furnishings. The flexible floor plan allows both bedrooms to be locked off for personal use or rental potential. Owners enjoy a full-service resort experience with valet parking, Basecamp ski valet just steps from Gondola One, daily housekeeping, and concierge services. Luxury amenities include a large heated outdoor pool, four hot tubs overlooking Vail Mountain, a state-of-the-art fitness center with mountain views, and rejuvenating treatments at Bloom Spa. Dining and après-ski options include the iconic The Gambit Bar and the resort's newest restaurant Leonora, all just steps from your residence. Private Residence Club ownership is a deeded fractional real estate interest offering guaranteed prime ski weeks, additional space-available time, and the ability to transfer or sell ownership. Owners also have the ability to rent out their weeks.

18. 2026-03-12
    status Pending 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    Enjoy luxury mountain living with fixed peak ski Weeks 8 and 9 in a beautifully appointed 2-bedroom, 3-bath residence at The Sebastian - Vail in the heart of Vail, Colorado. This designer-inspired condo offers stunning views of Vail Mountain from the residence and two spacious decks, along with a stone-surround fireplace, slab granite countertops, heated marble floors, and elegant mountain contemporary furnishings. The flexible floor plan allows both bedrooms to be locked off for personal use or rental potential. Owners enjoy a full-service resort experience with valet parking, Basecamp ski valet just steps from Gondola One, daily housekeeping, and concierge services. Luxury amenities include a large heated outdoor pool, four hot tubs overlooking Vail Mountain, a state-of-the-art fitness center with mountain views, and rejuvenating treatments at Bloom Spa. Dining and après-ski options include the iconic The Gambit Bar and the resort's newest restaurant Leonora, all just steps from your residence. Private Residence Club ownership is a deeded fractional real estate interest offering guaranteed prime ski weeks, additional space-available time, and the ability to transfer or sell ownership. Owners also have the ability to rent out their weeks.

19. 2026-03-10
    listed $425,000 Active 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    Enjoy luxury mountain living with fixed peak ski Weeks 8 and 9 in a beautifully appointed 2-bedroom, 3-bath residence at The Sebastian - Vail in the heart of Vail, Colorado. This designer-inspired condo offers stunning views of Vail Mountain from the residence and two spacious decks, along with a stone-surround fireplace, slab granite countertops, heated marble floors, and elegant mountain contemporary furnishings. The flexible floor plan allows both bedrooms to be locked off for personal use or rental potential. Owners enjoy a full-service resort experience with valet parking, Basecamp ski valet just steps from Gondola One, daily housekeeping, and concierge services. Luxury amenities include a large heated outdoor pool, four hot tubs overlooking Vail Mountain, a state-of-the-art fitness center with mountain views, and rejuvenating treatments at Bloom Spa. Dining and après-ski options include the iconic The Gambit Bar and the resort's newest restaurant Leonora, all just steps from your residence. Private Residence Club ownership is a deeded fractional real estate interest offering guaranteed prime ski weeks, additional space-available time, and the ability to transfer or sell ownership. Owners also have the ability to rent out their weeks.

20. 2025-12-19
    soldstatus $365,000 Closed
21. 2025-11-29
    status Pending
22. 2025-11-25
    soldstatus $345,000 Closed
23. 2025-11-21
    soldstatus $350,000 Closed
24. 2025-10-29
    status Pending
25. 2025-10-05
    status Pending - Continue to Show
26. 2025-09-27
    listed $350,000 Active
27. 2025-06-25
    listed $360,000 Active
28. 2025-05-01
    listed $360,000 Active
29. 2025-04-30
    soldstatus $340,000 Closed
30. 2025-04-18
    soldstatus $355,000 Closed
31. 2025-03-23
    listed $725,000 Active
32. 2025-03-22
    status Pending
33. 2025-03-14
    listed $450,000 Active
34. 2025-02-18
    price $360,000
35. 2024-12-23
    listed $249,000 Active
36. 2024-12-05
    listed $360,000 Active
37. 2024-12-03
    price $365,000
38. 2024-10-09
    listed $375,000 Active
39. 2018-07-27
    listed $180,000
40. 2018-07-10
    listed $355,000
41. 2018-07-06
    soldstatus $355,000
42. 2018-02-27
    listed $190,000
43. 2018-01-03
    soldstatus $172,000
44. 2017-12-19
    listed $355,000
45. 2017-09-11
    listed $185,000
46. 2013-11-22
    historical
47. 2013-11-20
    soldstatus $265,000 Sold
48. 2013-05-06
    status Under Contract
49. 2013-04-04
    price $279,900
50. 2013-03-07
    price $299,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 14 d/yr ≥74°F today · 37 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,998
• − Management: −$3,998
• − HOA: −$9,804
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $6,004
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,441
• After-tax cash flow: $7,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle County School District No. RE-50
• NCES district ID: 0803540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $73,322
• Composite: 30.01/100
• National rank: #6360
• State rank: #39 of 86 in CO

Livability — Vail

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #7125

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vail, CO
• County: Eagle County · 42,178 people
• City population: 4,835
• Metro: Edwards, CO
• Population (ZIP): 4,835
• Household income: $100,573
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 262.0

Population outlook (Eagle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,837 people
• By 2030: 59,258 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 60,698 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 60,206 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 54,326 · -6.1%
• By 2100: 47,000 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Eagle

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.4) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 23.1pp · 2024: 24.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.4 2020: D+29.8 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+14.7 2008: D+23.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.75%
• Current HPI: 485.2983
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Edwards, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-12.4% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Sold (MLS) $425,000 VMLS
• 2026-03-12 Pending — VMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $425,000 VMLS
• 2025-12-19 Sold (MLS) $365,000 VMLS
• 2025-11-29 Pending — VMLS
• 2025-11-25 Sold (MLS) $345,000 VMLS
• 2025-11-21 Sold (MLS) $350,000 VMLS
• 2025-10-29 Pending — VMLS
• 2025-10-05 Pending — VMLS
• 2025-09-27 Listed $350,000 VMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $360,000 VMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $360,000 VMLS
• 2025-04-30 Sold (MLS) $340,000 VMLS
• 2025-04-18 Sold (MLS) $355,000 VMLS
• 2025-03-23 Listed $725,000 VMLS
• 2025-03-22 Pending — VMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $450,000 VMLS
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $360,000 VMLS
• 2024-12-23 Listed $249,000 VMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $360,000 VMLS
• 2024-12-03 Price Changed $365,000 VMLS
• 2024-10-09 Listed $375,000 VMLS
• 2018-07-27 Listed $180,000 VMLS
• 2018-07-10 Listed $355,000 VMLS
• 2018-07-06 Sold (MLS) $355,000 VMLS
• 2018-02-27 Listed $190,000 VMLS
• 2018-01-03 Sold (MLS) $172,000 VMLS
• 2017-12-19 Listed $355,000 VMLS
• 2017-09-11 Listed $185,000 VMLS
• 2013-11-22 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-20 Sold (MLS) $265,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-06 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-04 Price Changed $279,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-07 Price Changed $299,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-25 Price Changed $319,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-11 Listed $389,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-15 Listed $450,000 VMLS
• 2011-06-06 Listed $485,000 VMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $51,495 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.