114 GRAHAM St

Jersey City, NJ 07307

$799,999F

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,457 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,861/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax + insurance: −$1,080
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$811
• Net cashflow: $-2,226/mo
• Annual: $-26,708/yr
• Cap rate: 2.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.92%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $224,000

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $800k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $407k (49.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $386k (51.7% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($788k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $386k (51.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in NJ, #2,955 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Jersey City Public Schools (urban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 472 in NJ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alfred Zampella School (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #731 of 1,303 statewide, top 59%, 802 students, 52% FRL); Academy I (math 60% / reading 76%, grade A-, #14 of 431 statewide, top 3%, 403 students, 46% FRL); William L Dickinson High School (math 11% / reading 35%, grade F, #337 of 399 statewide, top 85%, 2,024 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 69% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jersey City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 289 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $800k implies a 596% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 1.8% in Jersey City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,861/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 2550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.