1530 Belle Meade Rd

Bells, TN 38006

$179,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,255/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-136/mo
• Annual: $-1,635/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (29.9% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#156 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Bells (town): math 60% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #22 of 145 in TN (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Crockett County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $179k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.