1530 Belle Meade Rd · Bells, TN 38006

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1991 0.37 ac lot Est $239k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3BR/1.5BA home situated on a corner lot in Bells, TN. This property features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, a carport with attached storage room, and a large yard offering plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and everyday amenities, this home provides both accessibility and practicality. Great opportunity for buyers looking for a well-located property with added outdoor space.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Carport

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CARPORT
• ATTACHED STORAGE ROOM
• LARGE YARD
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Four total parking spaces; Two-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Raised foundation
• Construction: Residential construction
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Covered front porch; Patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Two main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Gas water heater; Covered front porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (29.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#156 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Bells (town): math 60% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #22 of 145 in TN (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Crockett County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $179k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,516 (29.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
290 Taylor Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,357 (-9%)	10mo	$247,000	$182	69
171 Taylor Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,524 (+2%)	19mo	$245,000	$161	66
41 King Cv	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-12%)	10mo	$199,900	$152	65
250 Taylor Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-11%)	12mo	$227,500	$171	64
136 Layne Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-8%)	7mo	$225,000	$163	61
47 Hunter Ln	0.25mi	3/3.0	1,563 (+5%)	16mo	$250,000	$160	59
1637 Bell Meade Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,690 (+13%)	10mo	$262,500	$155	55
158 Taylor Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-9%)	18mo	$214,000	$157	51
200 Layne Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,570 (+5%)	16mo	$235,000	$150	50
104 Layne Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (+6%)	20mo	$250,000	$157	48
47 Crider Dr	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,504 (+1%)	14mo	$185,000	$123	45
30 Rolling Hills Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,694 (+14%)	4mo	$309,900	$183	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $17,935
• Equity at exit: $85,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $69,796
• Equity at exit: $136,776

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38006

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,375/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,428

Max offer price $154,932

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   status $179,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $179,000 Pending 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $179,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    price $189,900
19. 2026-03-25
    listed $205,000 Active
20. 2001-02-14
    soldstatus $42,635

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,375
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$4,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,164
• After-tax cash flow: $-471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bells
• NCES district ID: 4700210
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,217
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7829
• State rank: #22 of 145 in TN

Livability — Bells

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #13510

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bells, TN
• Population (ZIP): 5,375

Population outlook (Crockett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,795 people
• By 2030: 14,812 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 14,811 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 14,809 · +0.1%
• By 2075: 15,405 · +4.1%
• By 2100: 16,200 · +9.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Crockett

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.7) · D 20.2% · R 78.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.2pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -58.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.7 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+38.4 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.53%
• Current HPI: 271.5507
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+345.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $189,900 CWTAR
• 2026-03-25 Listed $205,000 CWTAR
• 2001-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $42,635 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,375 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.