501 Jones Ferry Rd Unit J9

Carrboro, NC 27510

$150,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 892 sqft · Built 1971 · Condo · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,504/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$186
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-34/mo
• Annual: $-413/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-413/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (3.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#27 in NC, #2,610 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (urban): math 60% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #24 of 178 in NC (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fpg Elementary (math 46% / reading 57%, grade C-, #392 of 1,410 statewide, top 28%, 528 students, 40% FRL); Culbreth Middle (math 54% / reading 65%, grade B, #48 of 475 statewide, top 11%, 656 students, 33% FRL); Carrboro High (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #164 of 535 statewide, top 32%, 870 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.6% in Carrboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Exterior paint — Some discoloration on brick facade
• Minor: Interior paint — Some areas may benefit from touch-up