501 Jones Ferry Rd Unit J9 · Carrboro, NC 27510

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 892 sqft · Condo · 79 Days on market

Built 1971 Average condition $186/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This affordable, upper level, two-bedroom condo is located only moments from downtown Carrboro, the farmer's market, shopping, entertainment, and UNC. Chapel Hill Transit's bus system allows for easy access to multiple areas of town. This is the perfect floor plan for a roommate situation or house guests. The large kitchen boasts ample cabinetry. A large walk-in closet is found in the primary bedroom. Much of the interior has been freshly painted. New carpeting has been installed throughout many of the living spaces. New vinyl flooring is found in the kitchen and bath. A new HVAC system was recently installed. The HOA recently replaced the roof. Community amenities include a dog park, a poo

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• New carpeting
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• NEW CARPETING
• NEW VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Orange County; Publicly maintained road access; Directions: Hwy 54 to Jones Ferry Rd toward downtown Carrboro; first right into Collins Crossing
• HOA & community: HOA membership (monthly fee); Monthly association fee of $186; Community amenities: fitness center, pool, tennis courts, basketball court, dog park

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking in a parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: One-story unit; Unit J9
• Construction: Brick, shake siding, shingle siding, and wood siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Other structure type; Built with 892 sq ft of living area
• Exterior features: Swimming pool (community, fee); 2+ common walls

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combination; Entrance foyer; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-413/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (3.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.6% in Carrboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#27 in NC, #2,610 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (urban): math 60% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #24 of 178 in NC (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fpg Elementary (math 46% / reading 57%, grade C-, #392 of 1,410 statewide, top 28%, 528 students, 40% FRL); Culbreth Middle (math 54% / reading 65%, grade B, #48 of 475 statewide, top 11%, 656 students, 33% FRL); Carrboro High (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #164 of 535 statewide, top 32%, 870 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-30,771
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-46,097
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27510

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,504 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$186
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,548

Max offer price $145,016

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $17	+0% $-34	+5% $-86	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-94	+0% $-34	+5% $25	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $4	base $-34	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 Jones Ferry Rd Carrboro, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,234	$1.47	15d	10	0.11mi
404 Jones Ferry Rd Carrboro, NC	1.0	1.0	540	$1,205	$2.23	15d	9	0.15mi
401 Highway W Carrboro, NC	2.0	1.5	973	$1,400	$1.44	15d	28	0.19mi
601 Jones Ferry Rd Carrboro, NC	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,599	$1.55	25d	1	0.22mi
601 Jones Ferry Rd Carrboro, NC	1.0	1.0	804	$1,369	$1.70	15d	1	0.22mi
204 Cedarwood Ln Carrboro, NC	2.0	1.5	1072	$1,450	$1.35	25d	1	0.22mi
200 Barnes St Carrboro, NC	1.0	1.0	540	$1,595	$2.95	25d	1	0.22mi
201 Westbrook Dr Carrboro, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$1,445	$1.85	15d	5	0.27mi
605 Jones Ferry Rd Carrboro, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,486	$1.65	15d	13	0.30mi
501 State Highway 54 Carrboro, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,330	$1.85	15d	46	0.41mi
118 Bim St Carrboro, NC	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	15d	8	0.42mi
222 Old Fayetteville Rd Carrboro, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$1,687	$1.59	15d	13	0.43mi
222 Old Fayetteville Rd Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,790	$1.60	25d	1	0.43mi
201 N Carolina Highway 54 W Carrboro, NC	1.0	1.0	800	$1,182	$1.48	15d	3	0.46mi
108 Friar Ln Carrboro, NC	2.0	2.5	960	$1,700	$1.77	25d	1	0.51mi
112 Friar Ln Carrboro, NC	2.0	2.5	1000	$2,500	$2.50	25d	1	0.51mi
108 Chaucer Ct Carrboro, NC	2.0	2.5	960	$1,500	$1.56	25d	1	0.55mi
114 Chaucer Ct Carrboro, NC	2.0	2.5	1000	$2,900	$2.90	25d	1	0.56mi
605 W Main St #301 Carrboro, NC	2.0	2.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	25d	1	0.57mi
121 Westview Dr #38 Carrboro, NC	2.0	1.0	844	$1,300	$1.54	25d	1	0.65mi
108 Lindsay St Unit A Carrboro, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	25d	1	0.68mi
142 Bpw Club Rd Carrboro, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	772	$1,673	$2.17	15d	15	0.68mi
500 Smith Level Rd Carrboro, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,386	$1.52	15d	1	0.84mi
180 Bpw Club Rd Carrboro, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1121	$1,474	$1.31	15d	21	0.87mi
112 N Carolina 54 Carrboro, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	928	$1,406	$1.52	15d	14	0.94mi
1104 N Greensboro St Unit 15 Carrboro, NC	3.0	2.0	1079	$1,700	$1.58	15d	1	1.00mi
106 Pleasant Dr Unit A Carrboro, NC	2.0	1.0	904	$1,200	$1.33	25d	1	1.00mi
1104 N Greensboro St Carrboro, NC	3.0	1.0	930	$1,595	$1.72	25d	1	1.01mi
1105 N Carolina 54 Chapel Hill, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	722	$1,380	$1.91	15d	63	1.04mi
306 Estes Dr Carrboro, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	655	$1,185	$1.81	15d	73	1.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $186 · $2,232/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $150,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-04-03
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,444
• − Management: −$1,444
• − HOA: −$2,232
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,837
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$681
• After-tax cash flow: $268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This affordable, upper-level two-bedroom condo is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed. It offers a good location and community amenities, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior paint — Some discoloration on brick facade
• Minor Interior paint — Some areas may benefit from touch-up

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and touch-ups — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New flooring — Updates living spaces and adds value
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Updates bathroom and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior paint · Some discoloration on brick facade	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior paint · Some areas may benefit from touch-up	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and touch-ups — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New flooring — Updates living spaces and adds value ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Updates bathroom and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700720
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,687
• Composite: 54.28/100
• National rank: #1370
• State rank: #24 of 178 in NC

Livability — Carrboro

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #2610

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B Employment A Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrboro, NC
• County: Orange County · 151,666 people
• City population: 61,226
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 13,868
• Household income: $61,837
• Rent vs Own: 72.3% rent · 27.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1418.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,781 people
• By 2030: 168,367 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 186,192 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 203,801 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 249,160 · +56.9%
• By 2100: 285,614 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.1) · D 74.9% · R 23.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.3pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 51.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.1 2020: D+51.1 2016: D+51.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.74%
• Current HPI: 234.4993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $150,000 TMLS